More predictions for the new year

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Yellow Belt

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What are going to be top technologies for 2005?

At this time of year, all the so-called thought leaders come up with predictions about what's going to happen in the 12 months ahead. Meaning, of course, not much -- but we tend to read them anyway. Thus, I'm betting you'll read this brief story also.

Let's do a little "report card" on a sampling of last year's predictions and see how well they turned out. Then we'll look at one well-known research firm's predictions for this year.

Robert X. Cringeley's predictions for 2004:
# 2004 will see the start of the very digital convergence predicted by Al Gore back in 1996. The X Man was right on here.
# 2004 will be a crucial year for streaming media. Hmm, not really.
# SCO will implode and give up in mid-2004. Not quite, but perhaps in 2005.

Tallan, an IT professional services firm predicted the following to be big:
# General continued focus on security. Duh!
# Bullish on HP, bearish on SCO. Not a tough stretch there, but correct.
# Utility computing market will grow. It did; good call.

Nucleus Research (free registration required):
# 2004 IT budgets will be flat. Generally, this was indeed the case.
# Traditional software licensing will continue to erode. Again, generally true.
# There is no next big thing. This is very debatable: How about VoIP?

There were many others, of course, but that's enough of a look back for now. For the coming year, Gartner believes that instant messaging, wireless LAN, taxonomies, VoIP, software as a service, a real-time enterprise infrastructure, utility computing, grid computing, network security convergence and RFID are the top technologies for 2005. The research firm also sees additional developments in operating systems, SOAs (service-oriented architectures), on-demand computing, storage, open source, and -- of ever-increasing importance -- security.

I wouldn't call any of those bold predictions, but there you have it. See you here next year, same time, same place.


VoIP is going beyond what it used to be. Recently I met an American in Poland who is using his broadband connection to route his telephone to him here in Poland.
He recieves local American calls and call them back at local charge too.
The best part of it is that his call to Poland through this line is cheaper than that provided by the local service provider.
The world is getting smaller through Technology
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